engine
 member, 647 posts
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 13:46
Re: Dice roller
trollnystan:
All in my head I know. But argh! Out of the last 11 Perception rolls (D&D5E) we've done, only 3 have been over 11. Frustrating, lol.

What has happened as a result of those low rolls?

My goal when I GM is not to call for or make rolls unless every possible outcome of the dice will be acceptable, i.e. not ruin enjoyment. Otherwise it's like I'm gambling with the fun of the game itself, putting that at stake, which is pointless. Some things, like combat rolls in D&D, can generally only have disappointing, uninteresting results on a failure, but I ask that my players be prepared to deal with as many as three bad rolls in a row, because there's a relatively good chance of that happening. If they feel the least bit frustrated by such a string of rolls, then I ask what needs to change for them not to feel that way.

Suspicion and dislike of the dice roller (and any computerized dice roller) is not uncommon, but there's really no evidence that it's faulty.
Rinandien
 member, 57 posts
 Have fun,
 help others.
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 14:16
Re: Dice roller
That's why I grew to love Dungeon world. Bad rolls give you xp. And build tension. Everyone's happy :)
ShadoPrism
 member, 1230 posts
 OCGD-Obsessive-Compulsive
 Gamer-Disorder
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 14:18
Re: Dice roller
In reply to engine (msg # 1261):

Gremlins live in the dice rollers, only explenation to how horribly it rolls for everyone.
donsr
 member, 1362 posts
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 14:22
Re: Dice roller
    I have  homebrew system for  2 of my games and  semi-D&D... I use  rolls to randomize  outcomes... even an all star can trip  and  Fall, even a Klutz  can   get a lucky hit.


  I also make  my system  so there is no 'min -max'..you build your people  how you want them to be.... the dice  rolls change  from time to time  with the Mods   either  adding or subtracting ( depending on which way it goes)

 but the  most important thing  is the RP?... if  dice rolls are being used  too much, you may as well just have an arena  game.
icosahedron152
 member, 883 posts
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 17:40
Re: Dice roller
Now I've recently had the opposite experience - yet the same, if you know what I mean. I'm using 1D6 roll-under, and in the last 60 rolls, you'd expect each number to come up ten times, right? Give or take.

Guess how often the magic 1 came up in 60 rolls?

Three times!

What are the odds of that?

No, seriously, what are the odds? I'm no statistician.

When you want the darn thing to roll high, it rolls low, and when you want it to roll low, it rolls high. :(
bigbadron
 moderator, 15619 posts
 He's big, he's bad,
 but mostly he's Ron.
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 18:07
Re: Dice roller
And the interesting thing is that, after numerous complaints about the roller always giving low results (and people refusing to believe that it had been properly tested) jase secretly switched it around... final results of a roll were calculated as (d+1)-x, where d is the number of faces on the die, and x is the actual roll.

So consistently low rolls would produce consistently high results.  Right?

And the number of complaints about low results didn't change in the slightest...

See... it's like this.  Somehow the roller knows if you want high numbers or low numbers, and it will always screw you over.  If it had an alignment, it would be Random Evil.
ShadoPrism
 member, 1231 posts
 OCGD-Obsessive-Compulsive
 Gamer-Disorder
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 18:19
Re: Dice roller
In reply to bigbadron (msg # 1266):

And another proof of Gremlins in the computers is given. Evil little buggers they are.
Tyr Hawk
 member, 352 posts
 You know that one guy?
 Yeah, that's me.
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 18:28
Re: Dice roller
bigbadron:
And the interesting thing is that, after numerous complaints about the roller always giving low results (and people refusing to believe that it had been properly tested) jase secretly switched it around... final results of a roll were calculated as (d+1)-x, where d is the number of faces on the die, and x is the actual roll.

For those not mathematically inclined, that means that you get the following results table (with (semi)random values input to show how it works).

d (Dice Sides, d6=6)x (What You Roll)What you see
616
625
634
643
652
661
1038
1074
10101
240115126

So, as Ron said, the more you roll actually low numbers, the more you should be seeing high results.

bigbadron:
See... it's like this.  Somehow the roller knows if you want high numbers or low numbers, and it will always screw you over.  If it had an alignment, it would be Random Evil.

The Desire Sensor, as we call it in the Monster Hunter community. It knows. It always knows. You cannot avoid it. You cannot fool it. The Desire Sensor does as it pleases, and it does only to please itself.
engine
 member, 648 posts
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 18:50
Re: Dice roller
icosahedron152:
Guess how often the magic 1 came up in 60 rolls?

Three times!

What are the odds of that?

Well, the odds of one of six numbers not coming up in 20 rolls is:

(probability of other 5 numbers coming up)^20 = (5/6)^20 = 0.026 = 2.6%

The odds of that happening three times, would be 0.0017%. 17 in every 10000 times.

(Edit: Figured another way:
chance of rolling 57 non-1s = (5/6)^57 = 0.003%. 30 in 1000 times.)

Which doesn't actually tell us that much. It could happen again on your next 60 rolls or it might not never happen to you again. That wouldn't tell us anything about the dice roller, really.

Other interesting facts:
Odds of rolling a 20 on 1d20: 5%
Odds of rolling anything but a 20 fifty-eight times in a row: 5%

Odds of rolling a 1 on 1d6: 16.6%
Odds of rolling anything but a 1 ten times in a row: 16.1%

Odds of rolling an 18 on 3d6: 0.46%
Odds of rolling six ability scores no higher than 10: about 0.46%

This message was last edited by the user at 19:04, Thu 26 July.

LordXenophon
 member, 5 posts
Thu 26 Jul 2018
at 23:21
Re: Dice roller
Another useless statistical fact:

The smaller your damage die, the greater your chances of rolling maximum damage. The guy with a 1d4 dagger will do max damage 1/4 of the time. The guy with a 1d8 longsword will do max damage exactly half as often, only 1/8 of the time!
engine
 member, 649 posts
Fri 27 Jul 2018
at 00:22
Re: Dice roller
LordXenophon:
Another useless statistical fact:

The smaller your damage die, the greater your chances of rolling maximum damage. The guy with a 1d4 dagger will do max damage 1/4 of the time. The guy with a 1d8 longsword will do max damage exactly half as often, only 1/8 of the time!

Yep, though the same goes for minimum damage and the average damage from the longsword (4.5) is higher than the maximum damage of the dagger. Maximum damage feels good, but it isn't everything.
LordXenophon
 member, 7 posts
Fri 27 Jul 2018
at 01:14
Re: Dice roller
In reply to engine (msg # 1271):

But it does serve to show you how misleading statistics can be.
icosahedron152
 member, 884 posts
Fri 27 Jul 2018
at 03:55
Re: Dice roller
Thanks engine. Am I missing something? Shouldn't both your ways of working the same problem give the same result? ie shouldn't 0.0017 = 0.003?

Either way, it looks like the chances of rolling three 1s in 60D6 is around the same level as rolling two twenties in succession on 1D20. Which is rare, but not totally unheard of. Somewhere between 1 in 300 and 1 in 1000.

Dice, real or virtual, are just inherently untrustworthy.
engine
 member, 650 posts
Fri 27 Jul 2018
at 04:12
Re: Dice roller
icosahedron152:
Thanks engine. Am I missing something? Shouldn't both your ways of working the same problem give the same result? ie shouldn't 0.0017 = 0.003?

I think the second method is more correct. I think the first method is more like the chances of not rolling any of that number in 60 rolls. It's within a factor of two of the other answer, so if this were engineering we'd say they were the same result.

Edit:
icosahedron152:
Dice, real or virtual, are just inherently untrustworthy.

You can't trust them to roll the way you want, and you're likely to remember when they don't more than when they do. But if one can get to a space where they don't care which outcome they get, then I tend to find that dice and other random number generators stop seeming to have any kind of agency.

This message was last edited by the user at 13:58, Fri 27 July.

jpetoh
 member, 375 posts
 As irrational
 as pi.
Sat 28 Jul 2018
at 02:52
Just come on in...
During the past couple of weeks, there has been noticeable attempts by the property manager of our apartment complex to do maintenance to the grounds - fresh mulch spread, tree service cutting down stray limbs, entire shrubs cut down. There was also a rented cherry-picker in front of the mgmt office on the same day I saw someone coming out with a floor buffer. The fountain in front of the office also got a face-lift.

This past week, tenants (including us) received multiple afternoon notices to tell us they would be entering our apartments under vague circumstances the next morning (a property inspector first, then an exterminator).

Now I'm not Sherlock Holmes, but everything about this stinks of the property being sold.

Today, my family was gone from approx 9a to 2p. At about 7p, we discovered a small tin on our printer in corner of the living room sitting atop of piece of orange paper. The paper was an notice that a "Nova Consulting Group" had been given permission by the property management to enter our unit and leave a radon detection unit (the tin) for the weekend and was not to be disturbed.

So someone entered our locked townhouse with us not here for a non-emergent situation and without notifying us either 24 hours prior or leaving a notice on our door that they had been here.

I have checked, and this was illegal per state law.

I have sent an e-mail to the property manager asking why this happened. If she doesn't answer to my satisfaction, I will be contacting the company who owns the property to express my concerns. I am worried that if they are looking to unload the property that they won't really care how we are being treated. I am also concerned about the fact our lease is about to expire. We have been asked if we want to renew and agreed to do so, but we haven't put ink on paper yet. I am worried they are going to try to put it off pending a sale and screw us over. Because of my ailing hands, I've been out of work for a couple years, so moving is not really an option.

Just more seedless green graping stress that I really do not need...
CrazyIvan777
 member, 245 posts
Sat 28 Jul 2018
at 03:24
Just come on in...
Yeah, that sounds like something you want to get info on -right quick-, and don't sign anything til you know what's going on. I've had a single bad experience in that light, but it was horrible enough to eventually create some pretty serious long-term problems and an eventual broken lease. Check, find out if someone's taking over, who they are, and what they're like. Make your choice an informed one.

Also? Screw those guys for coming in without warning. That stuff is seriously wrong.
ShadoPrism
 member, 1232 posts
 OCGD-Obsessive-Compulsive
 Gamer-Disorder
Sat 28 Jul 2018
at 04:16
Just come on in...
Lovely they are setting themselves up for a nice large law suit by multiple tenents. Seems they want to get arrested or end up settling by selling the property to the tenents. (This is one way Condo's come in to being. At least according to my admittedly limited understanding of such things.)
jwneil
 member, 42 posts
Mon 30 Jul 2018
at 13:07
Just come on in...
I've been in the situation ShadoPrism describes.  "Buy your apartment which is now, suddenly, a condo or we'll find someone to buy it for you.


Also, in my experience:   I'd rented an apartment that was part of a ponzie scheme! I didn't realize this while I lived there - I just happened to do an internet search a year or so after I left the apartments.  "Ah, so that's why they never fixed anything...."  So my piece of advice is to keep an eye on the interwebs - see if you can find a pending sale with the current ownership - and see if you can find out anything about the intended buyers.  Might give you a good clue wheter to stay or leave.
LordXenophon
 member, 12 posts
Mon 30 Jul 2018
at 13:27
Just come on in...
In reply to jwneil (msg # 1278):

Any realtor can tell you whether the building has been listed. The nature of the inspections suggest that a potential buyer has already been found, so there should be a record of the listing by now.
ShadoPrism
 member, 1239 posts
 OCGD-Obsessive-Compulsive
 Gamer-Disorder
Wed 29 Aug 2018
at 19:03
Just come on in...
There are times when Hospitals don't know what they are talking about ...
I had to go in yesterday (sever bought of the runs plus nausea and sweating) for over night observation.
They found my potassium levels were .2 above normal max and just decided to tell me to stop taking most of my supplements. Several of which I take for different reasons than normal (like a blood pressure med I take cause it's side effect helps circulation, and I have bad circulation problems). I can understand being told to stop taking my potassium pills but to stop ALL Non Essential 'herbal or natural supplements' in such a broad stroke really irritates me. (I am aloud to take vitamins but they just listed every other supplement I take as 'Do Not Take'. No explanation or anything other than in the paper work one of the broad strokes for to much Potassium is to stop all that sort of thing. No reason WHY is given.
Ironically 2 of these supplements are prescribed by my doctor to help with certain health conditions I have and to stop taking them, even for a few days, will have long term Bad health concerns.
OceanLake
 member, 1049 posts
Thu 30 Aug 2018
at 00:32
Just come on in...
You have the right to ask questions and expect honest answers. In your case, I suggest having the answers put on paper.
DaCuseFrog
 member, 19 posts
 SW Florida
Mon 3 Sep 2018
at 17:42
Just come on in...
Dice rolls are not the be all, end all.  I hope I never DM like that.  I've got three separate games from three different DMs, and this is what I'm dealing with (all with level 1 characters):

1)  First night out of town, one watch didn't roll high enough on perception, so he fell asleep and all our backpacks and clothes were destroyed, and food and water taken or destroyed.

2)  First hour out of town, we come face to face with a water elemental.

3)  IN TOWN, a rampaging dinosaur shows up right in front of where we need to go.  Try to calm it, need five successes to three fails or it charges, arbitrary DC.

The universe is apparently telling me that I shouldn't be playing all these games at once.
jaws78
 member, 17 posts
 To err Is human ...
 ... to role play divine.
Mon 3 Sep 2018
at 18:26
Just come on in...
In reply to DaCuseFrog (msg # 1282):

Actually, the problem is not how many games you are playing but how many games you are not leaving ;).

Play lots of games, as many as you can reasonably play.  Then politely leave the ones that don't fit your style with many thanks and a masterful write out.

On your way through, try and get rmails for good players you can invite to future games until you have a good troupe.  Then you can start your own, or when you find a promising game invite them all and blow the GM's mind.

Goes off to follow his own advice....

This message was last edited by the user at 18:27, Mon 03 Sept.

horus
 member, 556 posts
 Wayfarer of the
 Western Wastes
Tue 4 Sep 2018
at 06:28
VENT - Fraggin' Late Season Storms!!!
Just when you think you've gotten through with storm season, some last-minute apple-hole like Tropical Storm Gordon shows up.  Gorram it, I did not want another late birthday present like this.

Somebody wake me up when September ends, please.
Isida KepTukari
 member, 231 posts
 Elegant! Arrogant! Smart!
Fri 14 Sep 2018
at 06:10
VENT - Doctors
Look Doc, when I go to my OB/GYN asking about a disorder I have likely had for 20+ years, have nearly all the symptoms for, one of which is obesity (and none of which are pleasant), and you mention the fact that I have gained weight, do you think that I am somehow unaware of this fact?  I mean, I'm the one buying my clothes.  I know my damn size.  She's talking about the weight I've gained as if I've managed to miss that development.

Doc, I have tried and am continuing to exercise. I am working on my diet. I am QUITE aware that a goodly portion of my weight gain is due to my lifestyle rather than this disorder.  But I would like to get some kind of grip on my body chemistry that you and my GP have managed to miss for over two decades!  If the tried and tested medication regimen I'm asking for can just give me a little bit of help and assist in shedding some pounds just so I can see some marginal improvement to give me hope and renewed inspiration, then I would like those medications without the judgment or lecture.

Asking for help in this manner is emotionally difficult, and do you know how I handle emotional stress?  If you guessed stress-eating, then you're right.  Making me more stressed and shamed about my weight is actually extremely counter-productive.

As least she got me the meds. *scowls*