Re: Samfunnsøkonomi er gøy!
Det sa... hmmm nei.
Men utsagnene dine her på mølla har forverret seg betraktelig. Først vender du Hellas ryggen, også nå med "Team Edvard" T-skjorte. Tsk Tsk
Her er forøvrig mine svar:
You are sitting in an office with your advisor, Maynard. You have been asked to come up with a workable solution for the troika and for Greece, which needs to be politically and economically acceptable to both parties. Maynard’s job is to take your ideas and turn them into a proper proposal to be submitted. He has a long list of decisions for you to make. “First of all”, he says, “we need to decide whether there is any more money on the table. Do you think that Germany (and Netherlands, Finland, etc) can sell any more fiscal transfers to Greece, given their domestic politics?”
If you answer “Yes, I know it’s going to be difficult, but we have to plan on that basis”, turn to 32.
32:
“I’m sure you know what you’re doing”, Maynard says, with perhaps a flicker of sarcasm. “At some point in this process, we may have to start thinking about exactly how much, but let’s put that to one side for the time being. The next decision relates to the Greek current account. Are we going to aim to bring it roughly into balance?”
If you answer “There isn’t a sustainable solution which involves Greece structurally consuming more than it produces. We need to get the economy back into balance”, turn to 14.
If you answer “I don’t think current account balance is a realistic aim. Greece is going to need structural fiscal transfers, like Alabama or Wales”, turn to 48.
48:
“I think we’re scoring points for economic realism here, but storing up political difficulties for ourselves later”, Maynard says. “But let’s game this one out then. What’s the debt strategy?”
If you say “That the current process is a can-kicking farce. We should just plan for a straightforward default on the debt”, turn to 2.
If you say “That part of the fiscal contribution is going to have to take the form of a significant further reduction in the debt by the official sector, over and above the private sector contribution already made”, turn to 46.
If you say “That we have to find a solution within the constraints of the current nominal debt level. We’ve got a certain amount of private sector writedown, but there won’t be any more”, turn to 29
46:
“OK, we’re getting somewhere”, Maynard says. “A big writedown of the debt will help a lot in terms of the fiscal balance, and then we can move to talking about the level of the structural fiscal transfers. This is basically taking us toward fiscal union, so it can’t be done quickly, but I can see how it’s moving in the right direction. Do we have Greece staying in the Euro?”
If you answer “No, they leave the Euro”, go to 12.
If you answer “Of course, yes”, go to 38.
38:
“OK”, says Maynard, between sips of tea. “This is getting somewhere. Negotiated writedown within the euro and then … what?”
If you answer “An IMF program, to go alongside the structural current account financing”, go to 5.
If you answer “Big structural investment funding from the EIB or something similar, to offset the structural current account deficit”, go to 53
5:
“You’re going to take a lot of flak for this from some quarters, but it seems to me to be that you could do a lot worse”, says Maynard, finishing his tea. “In terms of consumption smoothing and reducing the fiscal adjustment, I don’t think you’ll do better – you’ve written down the debt and you’re getting structural current account funding. But there is not really much escaping from the fact that Greece is not going to get back to the levels of consumption (or more accurately, the gap between consumption and production) that it saw in the 2000s. A lot will depend on the gap between the maximum amount that is politically possible for the Eurocore to deliver in terms of fiscal transfers, and the minimum amount that is needed to prevent riots in Greece. Which is a parameter outside our control, unfortunately. But at least this plan sorts out the debt, and gets Euroland on the road to fiscal union. Let’s get it written up”.
THE END
Interessant hvordan alle havnet på vidt forskjellige plasser. På nr 38 ville jeg i en ideel verden ha valgt det andre alternativet og gått til 53, men jeg anså det for litt for urealistisk med tanke på hvordan Den Europeiske Sentralbanken har vært til nå.
PS: Skal også poste i pathfinder snart.