Kurdish Rebellion.   Posted by Referee.Group: 0
Referee
 GM, 36 posts
Sun 21 Apr 2013
at 20:36
Kurdish Rebellion
I'm going to re-post some information here and use this thread to handle action\response since I'm most comfortable with the tools here.
Referee
 GM, 37 posts
Sun 21 Apr 2013
at 22:25
Re: Kurdish Rebellion
The locus of international attention has largely been fixed on the so called ongoing ‘Arab spring’ and other regional and global issues, overlooking the Kurdish rebellion and declaration of independent Kurdistan on September 22, 2024. However, with the arrival of spring, Kurdish nationalists have pressed their claims to a ‘Greater Kurdistan’ militarily. The Kurdish claims encompass large swaths of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria with the heaviest fighting occurring in Turkey and Iran.

Turkish Prime Minister Davutoğlu said that Turkey will continue to fight the terrorism of the Kurdistan Unity Party (KUP) “without stepping back from democracy, human rights, and freedoms,” even as the Turkish army has begun to largely pull ground forces out the southeastern part of Turkey due to heavy losses to their ground forces from the unexpectedly effective and coordinated Kurdish offensive. Turkey has begun to use broader measures to fight KUP rebels deploying UAVs and using airstrikes against suspected peshmerga strongholds.

Relations between the governments of Turkey and Israel have been swiftly deteriorating with Ankarra threating war and expelling the Israeli ambassador, claiming Israeli support of the Kurdish terrorists. The Prime Minister of Israel, Tzipi Hotovely, responded by opening diplomatic relations with declared Kurdistan, citing historic ties between the Jewish and Kurdish people and that Kurdish self-rule was a de facto inevitability. Over half a million Kurdish Jews live in Israel. Prime Minister Davutoğlu also criticized European countries for failing to crack down on KUP affiliates operating in Europe.

Aggravating Turkey’s setbacks is the fact that it is estimated half of Turkey’s military aged population are Kurds. Desertion among Turkey’s conscripted forces have been reportedly worsening and have been cited by analysts as one of the major factors in Turkey’s poor showing against the peshmerga.

In Syria, Kurds have taken over numerous towns in order to protect the Kurdish population from spreading hostilities, Salih Barzani, co-chair of the Kurdistan Unity Party, said in an interview with Golos Rossii (Voice of Russia). Civilian Kurdish defense forces have taken control of Kobani, Afrin, Derik, and other towns. Both the unraveling Assad’s minority Alawite regime and Turkish supported Tlass clan led Free Syrian Army have threatened harsher punishment if the Kurds do not withdraw but thus no Syrian faction can spare the resources to challenge Kurdish positions.

The former Kurdistan Regional Government has maintained a cool détente with the other Iraqi regions. The Iraqi government has been paralyzed by internal disputes, aggravated by the February bombing of the al-Askari Mosque in the Iraqi city of Samarra. Baghdad has been struggling to defuse steadily increasing sectarian violence. While Kurdistan has continued to hold to the rules put in place to split oil revenues between the Iraqi regions, police and military units in and around Kirkuk have openly begun to display the Kurdish national flag and set up a number of additional check points. Thus far both declared Kurdistan and Iraqi government seem to be pretending the situation is unchanged. The only significant conflict thus far was an Iranian armor battalion crossing the Iraqi border into the Bozi Nergaser region to shell the Kaniya Rash, Piraluk, and Binari Kodo areas. Abdallah Hamad, chief of Weza village told the Peyamner news agency that the shelling forced sheep breeders to leave the area and flee the Basa highlands. Iranian forces killed several nomads before retreating back across the border due to threats to their supply lines and the worsening border situation within Iran.

Fighting in Iran has been significant between the peshmurga and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Most of the fighting has been in several cities such as Mahabad, Sanandaj, and Umia as well as in Paveh in Eastern Iran. Former members of the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) (both now consolidated under KUP) have been using more traditional terrorist tactics in a bombing campaign targeting Iranian security forces and government buildings. Ironically, Kurdish rebels are using captured Iranian made IEDs against the IRGC using many of the same tactics pioneered in Iraq. As well it is reported the Kurds have deployed man portable drones and surface to air missiles to great effect. It is rumored that urban fighting has taken a particularly brutal toll on the IRGC’s infantry and that the Iranians have resorted to shelling Kurdish cities from the outskirts and calling in airstrikes on suspected Kurdish positions.

Combined with a Sunni insurgency in southwestern Iran and trouble with the ethnic Baloch nationalists group Jundallah (Soldiers of God) located throughout Sistan-Balochistan in eastern Iran, Tehran is finding it difficult to keep a lid on the long simmering ethnic tensions. Many minority communities within Iran see themselves as the victims of systematic ethnic and religious oppression by a Persian and Shia dominated regime.

The Iranian Guardian Council has asked for military intervention and aid from China against the Kurdish counter-revolutionaries. The Chinese navy, having announced an upcoming massive naval exercise in the region the previous month swiftly shifted the exercise to establish a sealift supply chain to the Iranian port of Khorramshahr instead. Chinese military advisors and other personnel have already arrived in Iran and the Chinese government has announced that it will be sending an initial deployment of 20,000 combat troops to Iran as well as air assets. Independent analysts estimate the Chinese could have ground forces in Iran and in contact within ten to twenty days.
Referee
 GM, 38 posts
Sun 21 Apr 2013
at 22:26
Syrian Theater
Factions forming now threaten to pull Syria apart on ethnic and sectarian lines with some cantons and enclaves forming as the Ba'ath government devolving to merely become the best armed and trained of the warring factions. Any sort of credible 'liberal democratic movement' faction is a bit thin on the ground as those that would support such a thing either going under the more traditional power structures (family, clan or criminal gang allegiance), fleeing the country (the wealthy more liberal elite...small 'l'... are fleeing to Europe for the most part and the remainder are going into Turkey, Jordan, or Iraq). At present the political condition in the country is such that only those willing to kill and die are basically relevant. Many of the educated middle-class Syrians who embraced the opposition are not in that category.

Besides the Assad's Alawites, identifiable factions can be a bit muddled. The Kurds at present have formed cantons in their tribal area and while they are supported by the Iraqi Kurdistan Autonomous Region their military organization is not beyond the militia level. Thus far it does not appear that Iraqi or Turkish based peshmerga have moved into support these cantons beyond a basic logistical level. The Kurds in Syria at present are not actively fighting the Syrian gov't or other factions (who are leaving the Kurds be for now as well).

Other Iraqis are fighting on both sides of the Syrian civil war however.

Power in order of strength (note there is some overlap with certain factions as part of other groups)-

National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces- Many of the following factions are part of this disorganized umbrella organization, including the Free Syrian Army and members of the Syrian National Coalition. It does have some control of some localized groups and territory.

Syrian National Coalition- Another umbrella group for mainly local councils, the SNC tends to be those groups more aligned towards Turkey (which is their main aid and supply pipeline). Howvever the SNC is part of the NCSROF as well. It has connections to the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Free Syrian Army- is steadily losing ground as the most powerful of the opposition forces. Initially composed of defected Syrian Armed Forces but a combination of infighting between its leading military families and defection of its personnel to other groups (or outright desertion) leave some doubt whether the military faction will remain intact much longer (possibly splinter or be absorbed by other factions).

Al-Nusra Front- More successful than the Free Syrian Army, Al-Nusra is swiftly growing in power and influence. Private citizens in Saudi Arabia are believed to be bankrolling this Sunni Islamist group. However, Al-Nusra does cooperate with the other rebel groups.

Al-Farouq Brigade- One of the more advanced (and effective) brigades it has a media arm and holds territory from Homs to the border with Turkey. It is funded by the Muslim Brotherhood and has come into conflict with Al-Nusra.

Hezbollah- aligned with Iranian interests and support.

Idlib Martyr's Brigade- based in the Idlib Governorate and is probably the largest and best armed local council (that isn't saying much;-). It relies on more terrorist style tactics like car bombings primarily.

Christian- roughly 10% of the Syrian population they are primarily siding with Alawite aligned forces (under the assumption that if the Alawites lose power they will be targeted).

Druze- no longer actively supporting the Alawite regime but hey have yet to actively support the opposition.

Syrian Turks- Supporting the opposition and mostly active in the Aleppo region.

This message was last updated by the GM at 22:27, Sun 21 Apr 2013.

Referee
 GM, 39 posts
Sun 21 Apr 2013
at 22:28
Turkish Theater
 Turkey info


'Ummah' political leaders are being blamed for 'retiring' and\or arresting Turkish generals before this crisis and putting politically reliable but incompetent commanders in their place. While Turkey has not adopted the harsher tactics of the Iranians in suppressing the Kurdish revolt they have stepped up to the line... reports of near indiscriminate airstrikes on the city of Diyarbakir have caused a bit of a problem within the Turkish military (in which a significant number of Kurds serve)... indications of mass desertion and worse are trickling out.

Government handling of the resulting riots in Istanbul's gecekondus as well as the gecekondus in other western Turkish cities (a reaction sparked by Diyarbakir) have significantly eroded confidence\support of the 'jash' Kurds in the Turkish government. The Davutoğlu administration's days seem numbered as Turkey is facing other growing sectarian and ethnic troubles besides from the Kurds... including more open activity by 'secret Armenians."

Arms are flooding into eastern Turkey from KRG but also Armenia.
Japan
 player, 8 posts
Wed 24 Apr 2013
at 19:21
Re: Turkish Theater
In reply to Referee (msg # 4):

Arms are flooding into Turkey from KRG... Whats KRG?
Referee
 GM, 40 posts
Wed 24 Apr 2013
at 22:24
Re: Turkish Theater
Japan:
In reply to Referee (msg # 4):

Arms are flooding into Turkey from KRG... Whats KRG?


That would be the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq.