Tlaloc:
In the beginning... is the important part. The new Palestinian nation will not be independent the same way Germany and Japan weren't at the end of WWII. As I said, major housecleaning needs to occur.
I would say that if you give them "statehood" on terms they don't accept (note that germany and japan both formally surrendered, and thus formally accepted the terms put upon them), you won't get the change in behavior you're looking for. If they don't accept it willingly, they're not going to stop firing rockets, committing acts of terrorism, because what are you going to do in return? Take away the version of statehood that they don't accept as valid? That's the trouble with your solution, in my opinion--forcing conditions on people that they don't want makes them want to hate you more. If they don't feel in control of their own destiny, if they feel like the "other side" is going to treat them however they please no matter what, the hate is going to grow, reformers are going to be shouted down, and the violent will gain more followers. And yes, this is more less what is happening now, because the current situation is basically along the lines of your ideas (i.e., Israel tells palestine how it's gonna be, and they just have to accept it).
Tlaloc:
I am just cutting this off since I see a problem here. You want peace yet you won't get rid of the ones who want violence. You want peace yet you won't allow for killing off those who target civilians because that will generate more terrorists. You want peace yet you won't allow another nation being attacked to defend itself.
To a degree, yes. Because "getting rid" of those who want violence is justice, not peace. I would love to get both, but if I have to pick one, I'll take peace. In this situation, if you "get rid" of those who want violence, that will make other people hate israel, and make them violent, and you've made no real progress towards peace. Yes, it's horrible to accept that in order to get peace we may have to let a whole lot of evil people go unpunished. But until I see a way to do both that looks like it will work, peace is more important to me than justice. Let me stress that I'm not saying that justice is unimportant, just that peace is more important to me.
Tlaloc:
Your problem, as I see it, is that you believe that Israel taking actions to protect it's citizens is what is generating the hate. But that hate has been there for a very long time, even before the establishment of Israel. What you want is to hand victory over to those who profit from Palestinian misery and who push a doctrine of hate.
Yes, hate has been there for ages, but at the same time, when Israel "defends" its citizens, it increases hate. When teenage kids playing soccer in their yard get killed when Israel bombs those launch rockets, it creates hate. It may not be logical, its definitely not fair, but its the situation that exists. And it's largely why Hamas launches the rockets in the first place. They
want the Israeli reaction, because it benefits their cause in the long run. So you think I'm handing victory over to the bad guys by pushing for peace, but I think that it's actually the other way around. Those who want to destroy Israel lose if we achieve a peace agreement. Every time we do the opposite, and get justice, we're actually helping their cause.
Tlaloc:
You are correct that a war against terrorism is not won by blowing up terrorists. New ones always pop up. But Israel has no choice but to do just that. Terrorisim is a battle of ideas and can only be won from inside the Palestinian culture. Israel can do nothing to change it. The situation changes when Palestinians and Muslims decide that Jews should be allowed to live and that terrorism and martyrdom are atrocities. The change comes from inside.
This is key, I think. We agree on the situation, but we seem to disagree on the implications. You agree that change has to come from the inside, but then your plan is to force change on them, from the outside, against their will. I just don't think that will work. Forcing them takes away power from people who want to make a change. Giving them the option to push for peace, giving them something to hold up and say "look, if we stop firing rockets we can have these things they've offered, and we can have peace!" It gives them something to use to change minds. But if they don't have that power, if they aren't the ones making the case, that change isn't going to happen.
Tycho:
Fear of reprisal is clearly not working to secure the peace. That's been the method for years and years now, and it's not working.
Tlaloc:
I would say it is working very well. Along with the security barrier and naval blockade check out the stats on actual terrorist acts within Israel.
I think we have a different idea of what "working well" means. There is still far too much violence for my tastes. Israelis are still living in fear or rockets, just as Elena told us.
Tlaloc:
I don't see how working with the same old terrorists (Fatah and the PA), giving back land, and uprooting settlers has done anything either. Your plan is just the same as what has been done time and again. Mine is a complete sweeping of the playing field. Something that has yet to be tried.
I don't really see your plan as something that hasn't been tried. It's the same old "kill the bad guys" plan that's been tried over and over. We managed to get peace in Northern Ireland by working with the "same old terrorists." The situations are very different, but I think Northern Ireland shows that even people willing to kill innocents, people who have strong hatreds, people who are willing to use violence to get their way, can be brought around to peace eventually if they feel they are doing it of their own volition.
This was from your discussion with habsin4, but I wanted to reply:
Tlaloc:
You know, I am going to have to agree with you on that point, external stimuli can have an influence. How about cutting off all aid and funding to the Palestinians until they stop voting in terrorists into their leadership? Or until they recognize Israel's right to exist? I believe that is an excellent point.
People tend not to like people who cause them hardship, even if they, in theory, deserve it. They particularly don't like being punished for the actions of others. What you're saying is punishing
every palestinian, even those who've been opposed to Hamas and trying to stop the violence, on the grounds that
most people voted for Hamas in the last election. That's going to kill the will of those reformers to keep trying to make a difference. If people feel they are going to be treated as a terrorists no matter what they do, they'll often start acting like one even if they're not. Collective punishment doesn't help achieve the internal change you've said is necessary. On the contrary, it makes it less likely by punishing the good along with the bad. Rare is the person who will turn on a friend when they're in the wrong, and support an enemy in the right. Even if it "makes more sense" in some sense for them to turn on the people shooting rockets, most people will feel the hatred towards the people shooting bombs back at them in retaliation, rather than at the neighbor who "started it." It's not a good thing, and I'm not defending it, but it's part of human nature and we have to deal with it. Humans are naturally tribalistic. We view the world through the lens of "us and them." We have a horrible tendency to judge the actions based on the actor, rather than the other way around. If Israel makes life harder on all palestinians to punish Hamas, almost all palestinians will get more made at Israel than they will at Hamas.
Tlaloc:
But what can Israel do to stop Arabs from believe they are the spawn of apes and pigs? What can Israel do to stop Mein Kampf from being a best seller amongst Palestinians?
If they really want to change that way of thinking, they have change their actions. Because a neutral observer has a much easier time seeing through propaganda than does a person who's neighborhood has been leveled. When someone else has control over your life, and is making your life miserable, then its all too easy to believe absurd claims about. Take that part away, and slowly, over time, things change. It's very slowly. People who are in their thirties now, and hate jews, will probably hate jews until the day they die. It's probably too late to change most of them. Because all it takes is one dead relative to set hate in stone for life. At the same time, humans also have a natural tendency towards empathy. It tends to lose out when it butts up against tribalism, but it can win out over time. I've heard it convincingly argued that hatred is more easily defeated by having people interact with those they hate in a non-confrontational manner, than the other way around. For example, if you have a racist friend, you're more likely to change their mind by having them hangout with a person of a different race, rather than change their mind with words and then see them hangout with that person by their own choice. To convince palestinians that all the crazy propaganda they're handed is just that, they need to deal with Israelis in a way that shows them just how crazy it is. If the only Jews they ever see are soldiers on patrol, cops at check points, and settlers taking landing, they're not likely to realize that the propaganda is just made up. If their main experience of Israel is airstrikes and power outages, they're not going to be doing much critical thinking of the anti-israeli books people hand them. It's extremely hard to root out hatred. It takes decades at least. But you simply can't do it at gun point. It just doesn't work that way.
This message was last edited by the GM at 19:36, Mon 28 Mar 2011.