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08:03, 28th April 2024 (GMT+0)

The bailout.

Posted by TychoFor group 0
Tycho
GM, 1692 posts
Thu 2 Oct 2008
at 08:25
  • msg #1

The bailout

Requested topic by Jude 3.
katisara
GM, 3292 posts
Conservative human
Antagonist
Thu 2 Oct 2008
at 13:44
  • msg #2

Re: The bailout

I've been discussing this in CC, but I'll cover things very briefly to get them started.

If we go with the bailout, the problem is it will lose $700B when we're already heavily in debt.  Rather than crashing the economy, that may crash our currency altogether, which in many ways would result in the end of the country as we know it.  It probably won't, but that's the risk.  The bailout may or may not work on its own.  Plus if it does work, corporations are going to learn they can mess around and the government will bail them out (it was that assumption which contributed heavily to this situation in the first place).  So we can expect in another 20 years a repetition of this, with the taxpayers assuming the risk for investments, and the banks getting the profit.

If we don't go with the bailout, we're looking forward to a major global recession, tens of millions of lost jobs, loss of buying power for the US dollar, and overall a serious degradation of our quality of life for likely 6 years or more, and possibly the long-term loss of our station as leader of the global economy.  It will also decrease trust in our system, resulting in less investment in the future.


Frankly, I don't think any of these are the right answer.  We shouldn't be looking to bail out those responsible and shouldn't be afraid of letting corporations die.  However, we do want to soften the blow so we can take it in more easily.  A long slide over several years is better than over several months because there's less shock to the system.  I'm not sure yet how mechanically you would do that, allowing for a controlled descent, but I think that should be our goal.
Trust in the Lord
player, 996 posts
No Jesus No Peace
Know Jesus Know Peace
Thu 2 Oct 2008
at 23:27
  • msg #3

Re: The bailout

I don't understand why the banks don't just declare bankruptcy. This way, the assets stay, and someone else new comes in willing to take those assets, and work with them at realistic values.

Unless there is no value in anything those banks own, the only people who suffer are the stockholders, and the CEO, right? The business owners, and home owner can still keep their devalued product, but at least they still have value.

Keeping prices artificially high makes no sense. Who would buy a product they know is over priced, when big banks can go belly up at any time?
Falkus
player, 597 posts
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 00:48
  • msg #4

Re: The bailout

I don't understand why the banks don't just declare bankruptcy.

Because that would create a mass bank panic that would result in the collapse of the US economy?
Trust in the Lord
player, 997 posts
No Jesus No Peace
Know Jesus Know Peace
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 01:09
  • msg #5

Re: The bailout

Why would it result in a collapse of economy? It should only collapse if the banks have no true value. If they go bankrupt, they go into receivership. The value of the company remains, and a new CEO comes in. Bankruptcy does not mean there is no value.
Falkus
player, 598 posts
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 01:32
  • msg #6

Re: The bailout

The value of the company remains, and a new CEO comes in. Bankruptcy does not mean there is no value.

But it does mean that people no longer trust the banks, resulting in a bank run. People withdraw all their money, further destabilizing the banks and causing them to collapse. That's what caused most of the damage during the depression.

There is nothing about money that makes it intrinsically valuable. Money is an illusion, the only value it has is that which people believe it to have.
Trust in the Lord
player, 998 posts
No Jesus No Peace
Know Jesus Know Peace
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 01:58
  • msg #7

Re: The bailout

All the people can go back to the bank and get their money out? It's a good thing that the insurance of such accounts is 100,000 dollars currently.

And since during this day, the USA citizen on average has the highest amount of debt, and the lowest amount of savings, that means all people will get their money, and the majority will get back every single penny.
Jude 3
player, 209 posts
Contend for the faith
once delivered to you
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 03:44
  • msg #8

Re: The bailout

Well I see your all off to a rousing start!  Here is why I wanted this thread.  I am fairly ignorant of these types of things.  Until I got married I didn't even have a checkbook and did everything with cash.  At first I listened to the president's speech and though it sounded good, but then I got an email from a friend with an attached letter from Ron Paul.  I will quote the letter here:

Ron Paul:
Dear Friends:

The financial meltdown the economists of the Austrian School predicted has arrived.

We are in this crisis because of an excess of artificially created credit at the hands of the Federal Reserve System. The solution being proposed? More artificial credit by the Federal Reserve. No liquidation of bad debt and malinvestment is to be allowed. By doing more of the same, we will only continue and intensify the distortions in our economy - all the capital misallocation, all the malinvestment - and prevent the market's attempt to re-establish rational pricing of houses and other assets.

Last night the president addressed the nation about the financial crisis. There is no point in going through his remarks line by line, since I'd only be repeating what I've been saying over and over - not just for the past several days, but for years and even decades.

Still, at least a few observations are necessary.

The president assures us that his administration "is working with Congress to address the root cause behind much of the instability in our markets." Care to take a guess at whether the Federal Reserve and its money creation spree were even mentioned?

We are told that "low interest rates" led to excessive borrowing, but we are not told how these low interest rates came about. They were a deliberate policy of the Federal Reserve. As always, artificially low interest rates distort the market. Entrepreneurs engage in malinvestments - investments that do not make sense in light of current resource availability, that occur in more temporally remote stages of the capital structure than the pattern of consumer demand can support, and that would not have been made at all if the interest rate had been permitted to tell the truth instead of being toyed with by the Fed.

Not a word about any of that, of course, because Americans might then discover how the great wise men in Washington caused this great debacle. Better to keep scapegoating the mortgage industry or "wildcat capitalism" (as if we actually have a pure free market!).

Speaking about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the president said: "Because these companies were chartered by Congress, many believed they were guaranteed by the federal government. This allowed them to borrow enormous sums of money, fuel the market for questionable investments, and put our financial system at risk."

Doesn't that prove the foolishness of chartering Fannie and Freddie in the first place? Doesn't that suggest that maybe, just maybe, government may have contributed to this mess? And of course, by bailing out Fannie and Freddie, hasn't the federal government shown that the "many" who "believed they were guaranteed by the federal government" were in fact correct?

Then come the scare tactics. If we don't give dictatorial powers to the Treasury Secretary "the stock market would drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account. The value of your home could plummet." Left unsaid, naturally, is that with the bailout and all the money and credit that must be produced out of thin air to fund it, the value of your retirement account will drop anyway, because the value of the dollar will suffer a precipitous decline. As for home prices, they are obviously much too high, and supply and demand cannot equilibrate if government insists on propping them up.

It's the same destructive strategy that government tried during the Great Depression: prop up prices at all costs. The Depression went on for over a decade. On the other hand, when liquidation was allowed to occur in the equally devastating downturn of 1921, the economy recovered within less than a year.

The president also tells us that Senators McCain and Obama will join him at the White House today in order to figure out how to get the bipartisan bailout passed. The two senators would do their country much more good if they stayed on the campaign trail debating who the bigger celebrity is, or whatever it is that occupies their attention these days.

F.A. Hayek won the Nobel Prize for showing how central banks' manipulation of interest rates creates the boom-bust cycle with which we are sadly familiar. In 1932, in the depths of the Great Depression, he described the foolish policies being pursued in his day - and which are being proposed, just as destructively, in our own:

Instead of furthering the inevitable liquidation of the maladjustments brought about by the boom during the last three years, all conceivable means have been used to prevent that readjustment from taking place; and one of these means, which has been repeatedly tried though without success, from the earliest to the most recent stages of depression, has been this deliberate policy of credit expansion.

To combat the depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection of production, we want to create further misdirection - a procedure that can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end... It is probably to this experiment, together with the attempts to prevent liquidation once the crisis had come, that we owe the exceptional severity and duration of the depression.

The only thing we learn from history, I am afraid, is that we do not learn from history.

The very people who have spent the past several years assuring us that the economy is fundamentally sound, and who themselves foolishly cheered the extension of all these novel kinds of mortgages, are the ones who now claim to be the experts who will restore prosperity! Just how spectacularly wrong, how utterly without a clue, does someone have to be before his expert status is called into question?

Oh, and did you notice that the bailout is now being called a "rescue plan"? I guess "bailout" wasn't sitting too well with the American people.

The very people who with somber faces tell us of their deep concern for the spread of democracy around the world are the ones most insistent on forcing a bill through Congress that the American people overwhelmingly oppose. The very fact that some of you seem to think you're supposed to have a voice in all this actually seems to annoy them.

I continue to urge you to contact your representatives and give them a piece of your mind. I myself am doing everything I can to promote the correct point of view on the crisis. Be sure also to educate yourselves on these subjects - the Campaign for Liberty blog is an excellent place to start. Read the posts, ask questions in the comment section, and learn.

H.G. Wells once said that civilization was in a race between education and catastrophe. Let us learn the truth and spread it as far and wide as our circumstances allow. For the truth is the greatest weapon we have.

In liberty,

Ron Paul


I guess I'd like you folks who are more savvy about such things to break this down for me and help me understand this issue.  It will come as no suprise to you all that I support Bush on most things, but Education and Economics are two areas I have disagreed with him on.  I'm not sure how you just keep "creating" money to fight a war.  I remember when our Canadian neighbors got the shaft when they came down to buy from us.  Now the tables have turned and I think it's because our Prez has decided to continue to flood just create money when there is none.  Anyway, that may or may not be a rabbit trail, but I'm seriously kind of lost on this deal.  I just got another email today that points to Clinton pressuring Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to lower their credit standards back in 1999 to allow low and moderate income families to qualify for mortgages as the start of this whole debacle.

Anyway, please let me know what you think. (I know you will. :)
Tycho
GM, 1693 posts
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 09:17
  • msg #9

Re: The bailout

I'm as confused by the whole bailout thing as everyone else.  I don't understand it all well enough to do anything but listen to people who claim to understand it and repeat what they say, which doesn't make me particularly confident.

A few things that do seem clear, however:
1.  We seem to be facing a choice of letting the market run its course, or trying to artificially alter the market in order to avoid some financial pain.  I think it's crucial that we realize that if we're going to be doing the latter, we are not in a free market economy.  If the government is going to be intentionally trying to alter the value and price of assets, going to be artificially preventing some businesses from failing, while letting other ones fail, then we simply aren't in a free market.  That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's important that we realize and accept it if we do it.  Because we can't treat these companies as if they're in a free market during the good times, but not during the bad.  As people have pointed out here a few times already, that will just lead to more and more booms, busts, and bailouts.  People will continue to make overly risky investments if they know they're going to get bailed out if things go bad.  If people's bad investments are being backed up by my tax money, I want rules in place that limit what kind of investments they can make.  If companies become "too big to let fail," then we need to accept that they're also too big to take the same risks the we let smaller companies and individuals take.  Alternatively, we can keep the idea that the free market is the only way to go, and just let these companies fail.  Either way, though, we need to realize we can't have our cake and eat it too in this situation.  We can't have a free market in the good times, and wellfare for billionaires during the bad, or we'll just end repeating the same mess over and over.  We have to decide whether we want to trust the market to work, with the downside of periodic recessions or depressions OR trust the government to keep the economy from going completely over the edge, with the downsides of more restrictions of large companies and enforcing more conservative investing for them.  If we try to do both, we end up with a situation where the companies get rich during the good times, and the taxpayers get poor during the bad.

2.  We need to update our economic models.  Pretty much all of our economic theory is based on equilibrium theory, but the economy is more dynamic than the theory can handle.  We need to be able to better model things like speculation, confidence vs pessimism, etc.

3.  We have to do something to bring the national debt back under control.  We had a significant budget surplus 8 years ago, which has turned into a huge deficit, made huger by fighting two wars.  The system seems to be straining, as our economy depends more and more on foreign investors buying up our debt.  The dollar is becoming less and less valuable as the debt increases, and if this continues, eventually people aren't going to want to buy up our debt, and the whole thing is going to collapse.  Yes, this probably means both increased taxes and decreased spending.  We need to accept that, and expect it from our politicians.  If we continue to keep cheering for whoever promises to cut taxes and offers the biggest new projects, that's what politicians are going to keep giving us, and the problem is going to keep getting worse.
Tycho
GM, 1694 posts
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 09:29
  • msg #10

Re: The bailout

Trust in the Lord:
Why would it result in a collapse of economy? It should only collapse if the banks have no true value. If they go bankrupt, they go into receivership. The value of the company remains, and a new CEO comes in. Bankruptcy does not mean there is no value.


I think the trouble is (and again I stress that I'm no expert on this, and am just as confused as everyone else) less one of value, and more one of liquid assets.  The economy needs banks around to lend people money, so that business can start, people can buy homes, etc.  We need banks to have cash so that they can make those loans.  If they were to declare bankruptcy, they would have to use what cash they had to pay off their debts, I would think.  That would leave them with no money to lend.  And that would leave all the people and business who need loans in a bad spot.  So if I understand it (see the caution above!), it's not so much an issue of the banks being able to pay their bills each month, and more one of them having money left over to lend.

I'm also under the impression (caution!), that much of the lending is between the various banks.  If one bank needs more cash, they'll take out a loan from another bank, say.  If the banks are worried the other banks are going to declare bankruptcy, they won't lend each other any cash, so those banks who would consider declaring bankruptcy wouldn't be able raise the cash to keep themselves in business.

From what I understand (careful now!), the bailout is designed to buy up questionable debt from banks.  Banks need to keep a certain amount of cash on hand in order to cover their investments, in case those investments go bad.  Right now they're having to keep a lot of cash on hand to cover these investments.  If the government buys up those investments, the plan is, then the cash the banks were using to cover them (as well as the money they get from the sale) would now be available to them to loan out to people, and keep the economy moving.  The government ends up owning a bunch of questionable investments, but since they're not (normally) a lending agency, they don't have to worry about keeping cash on hand to cover them, so it's less of a problem (or so the theory goes).
Trust in the Lord
player, 999 posts
No Jesus No Peace
Know Jesus Know Peace
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 09:38
  • msg #11

Re: The bailout

I'm not saying all banks will go bankrupt. Only some will go bankrupt. Once they do go bankrupt, another group or bank can take on the liability and the value held by said bank. For example, if your bank goes bankrupt, you still have to pay off your mortgage, loans, and credit cards to the new bank that will take on your debt. There's still a lot of debt that will be paid, and there will still be plenty of people that want to make a profit off the value owned by the bank that goes bankrupt.


This value does not disappear in the event of a bankruptcy. The bigger issue why banks are not lending money to other banks is due partially to the bailout. If the bank goes bankrupt and the value is 20% of stock to the receiver, but the government is taking it to congress to get 30, 40, or maybe 70% of value, the banks would be crazy to give up the potential profit by having the government take on that debt.

It's still about profit, and how much money they will take away. Right now, it's determining just how much profit.
Tycho
GM, 1695 posts
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 09:54
  • msg #12

Re: The bailout

Trust in the Lord:
I'm not saying all banks will go bankrupt. Only some will go bankrupt. Once they do go bankrupt, another group or bank can take on the liability and the value held by said bank. For example, if your bank goes bankrupt, you still have to pay off your mortgage, loans, and credit cards to the new bank that will take on your debt. There's still a lot of debt that will be paid, and there will still be plenty of people that want to make a profit off the value owned by the bank that goes bankrupt.


That's just it, though:  the liability of these banks is just what other banks don't want right now.  Their own liability is tying their hands at the moment.  If they take on another banks bad debts, that just makes it harder for them to make good loans, because they need to keep more cash on hand to cover the new debts that they've bought up.  If the debt was something other banks wanted, there wouldn't be a problem in the first place--they could just sell their debts off without declaring bankruptcy.

Again, though, the bailout isn't about saving the shareholders of the banks/investment firms (though it may well do that), it's about making sure the banks stay open so that people/businesses can get new loans.  Declaring bankruptcy may be good for some of the banks, but it's not good (we're told) for the economy, so we need (again, so we're told) to stop it from happening in order to avoid a credit crunch.  Put another way, the goal isn't the keep the banks from losing money, it's keeping the banks around and lending money.  Unfortunately, it seems that the only way to do that is to keep the banks from losing money on their bad investments.

Put yet another way: letting these banks/investment firms go under would be worse for us than it would be for them.  The banks care about making the most money (or taking the smallest loses) for their shareholders, where as "we" care about making sure the economy is running well.  Bankruptcy might be the bank's choice best (if there isn't a bailout), but it's not what "we" want to happen, so "we" offer them a bailout so they don't declare bankruptcy.  We give them a new choice, because their current best choice doesn't work well for us.  At least, I think that's how the story goes.
Trust in the Lord
player, 1000 posts
No Jesus No Peace
Know Jesus Know Peace
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 10:04
  • msg #13

Re: The bailout

We can still get loans. The banks will want to give out loans so it has more money. They won't want to give out loans recklessly like before, thinking the Government will take on the bad debt if it doesn't work out. Making the taxpayer take on the risk, but the banker to take on the profit is not a good idea. It leads to risky behavior.


Another bad part about the bailout is that it will also devalue the American dollar. Since the USA will have to loan itself the 700 billion, it will lower the American dollar even further than it has already devalued itself.
Trust in the Lord
player, 1001 posts
No Jesus No Peace
Know Jesus Know Peace
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 10:21
  • msg #14

Re: The bailout

I just looked up Forbes website, and note that the CEO of Fannie Mae, Daniel H Mudd, was paid 8.79 million last year for his efforts. I'm learning this is common to be be so hugely paid when making bad investments.
Tycho
GM, 1696 posts
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 10:30
  • msg #15

Re: The bailout

Trust in the Lord:
We can still get loans. The banks will want to give out loans so it has more money.

That's just it, though.  The banks have to have some amount of cash on hand in order to make loans.  If that wasn't necessary, you or I could just call ourselves banks and start handing out loans.  As I've said, the trouble isn't so much just the banks losing money, but rather the banks not having the cash on hand to give out loans.  They need to have liquid assets in order to make loans.  At the moment their assets are tied up in questionable debt.  They want to sell off those debts, so they can have cash instead, and thus make more loans.  Nobody wants to buy up the debt, though, because they don't have a good idea on what it's likely to be worth (and because if they have cash with which to buy them, they're better off just using it to make "good" loans anyway).

Trust in the Lord:
They won't want to give out loans recklessly like before, thinking the Government will take on the bad debt if it doesn't work out.

To be fair, I don't think most of them were expecting a government bailout when the made the loans.  However, they did think housing prices would just keep going up and up, and that someone up the financial food chain would buy up their debts.  It was very much poor judgment, but I think it was more a case of them thinking the loans weren't actually risky, rather than thinking the government would back them up.

Trust in the Lord:
Making the taxpayer take on the risk, but the banker to take on the profit is not a good idea. It leads to risky behavior.

No disagreement there.

Trust in the Lord:
Another bad part about the bailout is that it will also devalue the American dollar. Since the USA will have to loan itself the 700 billion, it will lower the American dollar even further than it has already devalued itself.

Yep, this is true too.  The question is (and I don't know the answer) whether that's worse than a credit crunch that slows the economy way down, likely for a decade or so (similar to what caused Japan's "lost decade").  Like I said in my first post, we can't have it both ways.  We have to swallow one unpleasant pill or the other: government influence in the economy (in both the good times and the bad), or accepting recessions/depressions as part of a free market, and sucking it up and living through them.
Trust in the Lord
player, 1002 posts
No Jesus No Peace
Know Jesus Know Peace
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 10:42
  • msg #16

Re: The bailout

http://www.forbes.com/business..._bw_0923bailout.html

quote:
In fact, some of the most basic details, including the $700 billion figure Treasury would use to buy up bad debt, are fuzzy.

"It's not based on any particular data point," a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. "We just wanted to choose a really large number."


It brings up an important point. Since the banks themselves don't know if one bank or another is going to go bankrupt, the 700 billion is a completely made up number. The government cannot know if 700 billion, or just 20 million will be enough to make a bank have value again.

Why did the government wait till the very end before revealing the bail out? Didn't they know? Why did the government stop making it public knowledge about how much money they printed starting back in 2006?

Does anyone wonder why the Federal Reserve is a private company owned by banking cartels?


The bailout is a hoax. It's all about how much profit these ruling banks can make on the backs of every day citizens. The "scariness" and fear tactics are along the same lines used to get the regular people to accept ideas such as the Patriot act.
katisara
GM, 3295 posts
Conservative human
Antagonist
Fri 3 Oct 2008
at 13:28
  • msg #17

Re: The bailout

Overall I agree with Ron Paul, and many but not all of his economic theories I tend to agree with.  On some points I think he takes it a bit far (his theories are very safe and very conservative, but by being so safe, they sometimes limit opportunities for economic growth).

The fact that the government no longer tells how much money it prints is indeed a bad sign.  The value of our currency depends on security, and that in turn depends on knowledge.  Even if the government is playing straight, the fact that they're hiding their cards makes me suspicious, and more eager to invest in tangibles and overseas than I would otherwise.  Hiding how much money they print allows them to print more (or less, but almost certainly more) than normal and delay the consequences enough that it primarily hits someone else, namely people like you and me.

quote:
To be fair, I don't think most of them were expecting a government bailout when the made the loans.


It would appear Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae did.  They took on more high-risk loans with the understanding they had government support (since many senators actively spoke out on behalf of those risky loans).  While they aren't 'most banks', they do make up a surprising number of loans.



That said, I'll go ahead and give a few reasons why we do need this bailout (since everyone seems to be fighting on the other side), going from most straightforward to more distanced, as the ripples of economic meltdown are felt.


On the most basic level, many (perhaps even most?) people have significant amounts of money tied into the market right now.   Most businesses have a 401k, Roth IRA or TSP account, all of which invest in the market in one form or another.  Additionally, most people with kids have a 539 or similar college plan which invests in the market.  The truth is, if I were to retire right now, I would not be able to live off of my retirement pay by a long shot, and most people are in a similar place.  The economy moved away from a full pension back in the 80s, and now most companies only pony up a small portion, if any (which is a very mixed blessing).  If the market crashes, a lot of boomers who were just on the cusp of retiring will not be able to do so, and a lot of people (like me) who are saving up for their own or their childrens' college education won't have the money for that.  I don't think anyone wants to see their saved up retirement fund disappear, nor to see their children not be able to afford college, so this is pretty significant.

As banks close down, the FDIC will have to fill in the gap.  The big problem here is, the FDIC is not especially fast.  There was a minor crash a few years ago (I can look it up if people are interested) and the FDIC took two months to reimburse people, and offered no additional interest for the difference in time.  Can you imagine surviving for two months with no paycheck?  Most people can't.

People can't get loans for important things.  College loans, house loans, car loans, etc. all dry up.  Some of these people have been abusing for a while, but when it comes down to it, these loans are also very helpful.  If I were getting ready to sell my house, or change jobs, I may need a loan to fix up the house beforehand or make the move.  Without this liquidity, I can't do that, and I'm stuck in a bad situation.

Businesses also can't get loans required for growth.  Right now most everything requires a loan.  You can't start a new business out of pocket.  If businesses can't get loans, they can't hire new people, they can't expand, and economic growth stalls.  This is a critical point, since this is where we move from direct effects to less obvious effects.

Now things start to get more complex.  A healthy economy is one where money moves quickly.  Right now, each dollar you spend 'makes' approximately $11 more dollars before it stops.  This all depends on people having cash available to spend above and beyond the necessities.  If you can't afford more than rent and food, the cycle is a lot lower.  So as people have less disposable income, it results in a cycle.  They spend less, less moves around the economy, less gets back to them, they have less to spend, etc.  There are problems relating to this 'speed of money', but we aren't focusing on those right now.

Most of us are in a position where we benefit from people having discretionary income to spend on more than just food and rent.  Most of us also benefit from having a wide availability of luxury products, like TVs and ipods.  On the contrary, when the money doesn't move as far, people aren't needed to produce these things and get laid off.  Meanwhile, consumers have less selection to choose from and have to make do with lesser products.

One way of keeping this money moving is by 'making' money, either literally through printing presses, loans (enter the FDIC) or credit cards.  Since the banking meltdown will significantly curtail two of these, we look forward to a significant increase in unemployment and falling luxury levels for a long period fo time until the market self-corrects.


Tycho is very right about the public and private debt.  We've already been skating on thin ice for a while.  If we had a 0 balance, $700B would be painful, but pretty safe.  No one would question the US's ability to repay that.  But we aren't, so it puts our currency in doubt, and threatens to overthrow it altogether.  Similarly, most people are in a lot of debt, and so now that they actually NEED that money to pay their mortgage, they're in a tough spot.
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