Re: Has TV Killed the Radio Star?
The most analogous situation I can think of is when MMORPGs came along and some people predicted they would be the demise of MUDs and MUSHes. They definitely had an impact...but some of us that used to be very active on MU*s just plain old drifted away for reasons that had nothing to do with MMORPGs (which I've never indulged in).
That said, based on stories from friends and family who did get into MMOs, there were still some advantages MU*s had (certainly in terms of exploring development of your characters' personal aspects)...some got bored with the basic "same stuff with a new skin" that was the typical MMO, and went back to MU*s. Some migrated here, or to other PBP platforms. Some just got busy with life and decided online gaming (or even gaming in general) was no longer a priority.
VTTs are becoming more versatile, and are, as mentioned earlier, the new toy that's getting all the attention. For some people, they'll be a better fit. For others, they won't. For still others (who have time), they'll split their time between the two and explore the best of both worlds. And there's always natural attrition...people get too busy, change life priorities, or (sadly) die, and thus we lose users for reasons that have nothing to do with alternative gaming platforms.
RPOL does not, to the best of my knowledge, advertise or recruit...new users come in largely through word of mouth (occasionally, someone's just looking for online role-playing and they happen to stumble through the front door).
But just like MMOs didn't kill off MU*s, VTTs aren't going to kill RPOL. Numbers may drop...but that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's not like RPOL is reliant on sustaining a certain number of users to maintain funding.