Re: Keeping Focussed (1200-1600)
In reply to Seth Joseph Delaney (msg #42):
"I think Seth's idea has merits. As a commando, I know special operations are not "magic" like most people think, and are best used in conjunction with some other overall effort. Eliminating the leadership to effect the surrender of the rest of the elements falls under that requirement, more-or-less."
It wasn't surprising that Fox was sympathetic towards a commando strike, that being his training and experience.
"I also believe that fundamentally, the two options are similar in that they use force to compel a favourable outcome, and rely on gathering information about the Trolls' top echelon (in particular: Basil Wright, their leader) through various means and rely on a lightning operation. The key to success in both operations is effective intelligence, surprise and interdiction of enemy communications and surveillance; if we assume these factors are in effect for one, they will be in effect for the other so they even out between those options, if you follow."
"The pros of a commando strike are it uses an economy of force and only risks (say) a dozen lives. A small team has a better chance of remaining undetected and has at least a fair chance of avoiding detection and escaping considering the current overgrown nature of the airport (1-2 years, with long grass and small trees growing in the open areas). Andy and I are commandos, while Seth is Light Infantry and Chris (Mac) is a Ranger, Rob is a Marine sniper and Keith is a Marine, too. So we have a good cadre to start with regards to skills and training.
"The cons are that a smaller team has less firepower at its disposal and thus a far less chance of fighting their way out if they are cornered. If casualties are taken, it's important to realise they will all be by definition key personnel on the DRI team here at UBC (URAEL) and consequently more valuable on an individual level to regional operations.
"I think people elsewhere in the city will be relatively impressed if we pull a commando strike off and like the park, it will show a measure of restraint. Overall, I give the chances as at least moderate and the risks low. If there is a failure, it will not be catastrophic."
Fox paused, thinking of Taras' plan of an amphibious strike. He seemed to like that idea as well.
"For pros, a larger force has more firepower at its disposal; if our intelligence (say) is off then we at least have a chance of winning a conventional engagement against the Trolls. What we give up in stealth we make up in shock. Regarding the pool of expertise, we have 2 US Marines, a Soviet, sorry, former Soviet assault engineer and both Andy and I have experience as commandos in maritime and littoral operations.
"For cons, it's possible that casualties could be very high if we are intercepted mid-crossing or ambushed at the river bank. If we get across, I don't think casualties will be more than a dozen unless things go really wrong, and again with a bigger force we have more options and more firepower. While we do have people experienced in amphibious operations, but our expertise is going to be spread thin among a lot of other people, plus special equipment to prepare, and not a lot of time to do it, a week at most. It's a tight schedule and difficult to maintain operational security.
"The results will be spectacular, if successful. I think our job here would become significantly easier. Worst case could be very bad indeed, if we take high casualties."