In reply to Player 3 (msg # 63):
Well, you can see how not defending works. I never missed and still lost badly.
I'm not sure I understand the modified damage system. The only thing I control about the attack roll is the dice pool, which means the only thing I can really stack is the width.
While rolling more dice has a dramatic impact on my odds of rolling more matches, it does comparatively little impact on my odds of rolling HIGHER matches (odds of rolling a given number is still 1 in 10 per die, no matter how many of them I roll).
What I demonstrated earlier was your odds of getting any pair at all. Here's the math behind figuring your odds of getting a SPECIFIC pair of a certain minimum height:
Chance of Rolling 1 Pair of Any Given Minimum Height
| 1D | 2D | 3D | 4D | 5D | 6D | 7D | 8D | 9D | 10D |
H1 | 0 | 10% | 28% | 50% | 70% | 85% | 94% | 98% | 99.6% | 99.9% |
H2 | 0 | 9% | 25% | 45% | 64% | 79% | 90% | 95% | 98% | 99.4% |
H3 | 0 | 8% | 22% | 40% | 58% | 73% | 84% | 91% | 96% | 98% |
H4 | 0 | 7% | 20% | 35% | 52% | 66% | 78% | 86% | 92% | 95% |
H5 | 0 | 6% | 17% | 30% | 45% | 59% | 70% | 79% | 86% | 91% |
H6 | 0 | 5% | 14% | 26% | 38% | 50% | 62% | 71% | 79% | 85% |
H7 | 0 | 4% | 11% | 21% | 31% | 42% | 52% | 61% | 69% | 76% |
H8 | 0 | 3% | 8% | 16% | 24% | 32% | 41% | 49% | 57% | 64% |
H9 | 0 | 2% | 6% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 29% | 35% | 41% | 47% |
H10 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 19% | 23% | 26% |
I've colored in red the point at which the chance of getting at least a certain height exceeds 50%.
Example on reading the chart: If you're rolling 4D, you have a 50% chance of getting any pair at all (that's the top row across the board, really), a 26% chance of rolling a pair with a height between 1-6, and a 5% chance of that pair being exactly 10.
I need to refine the table a bit; work in progress. I may make some modifications down the line to make this more useful.
BUT, what Player 3 is saying is pretty accurate. Under the "Height = Targeting" system, a guy with 4d10 is only going to strike someone in the head 5% of the time, while an expert with 8d10 has a 19% chance of doing the same.
Under the "first die" system, that's 10% across the board, no matter your skill.
Still, this table is helpful for predicting how likley you are to cross certain thresholds. Hope you like it!
This message was last edited by the player at 22:55, Tue 25 Nov 2014.