"I am not sure that one third of our troops would be sufficient, and we have walls around Tusk and ringbridge as well as other defensive structures scattered around." Henry says in response to Cass.


OOC:  I knew I had written it down somewhere, but have been struggling to find it.  Apparently, I blogged on it, then ran out of time to put it in the mass combat rules section of the Wiki.  See the Sieges section at the end of this page :_

http://galinia.org.uk/263-2

“If our citizens withdraw and prepare for siege conditions, then I believe that they would be safe until our troops return. So Lord Henry, to whom do you propose we dedicate our troops?”

"...and if we back the losing side?  We send troops to the Aldori, and the Surtova win this?  Or we send troops to Surtova, and the Aldori pull this off?  Forgive me for speaking bluntly, my lord, but if we pick the losing side in this, we're screwed even more than if we don't send any troops, because the King will see it as a personal affront and we'll be facing attacks from our northern border, or the Aldori will cut off our trade routes to the east and north and Midmarch withers from no trade.

Besides, the letter's nothing more than a pile of empty threats, anyways."

As the wine passed, Kiera would grab a glass of her own, taking a sip before continuing.

"It's not like they would have the troops to back up whatever threats they might make at the moment, either. Any troops he might send down here are that many fewer that he can't send against the Aldori in the east- and even after this all passes, he'll have his hands full with occupying the east and keeping things under control... and even after that, there's no populace that I know of who could handle two big campaigns, one after the other, in such a short amount of time.

Same with the Aldori- they win this thing, they'll have a lot of the same problems- having to deal with a bunch of new territory, occupying and securing it.  They won't have time to worry about Midmarch, or the supplies or manpower.  Both sides might be a little cross at us, yes, but at the same time, what can they do about it?"

Taking another few sips from the glass, she'd eye it, and shrug.

"...neutrality is a funny thing- besides, how would it appear to the rest of his allies?  You attack a country that's trying to stay out of a civil war, what does that say to the rest of the world?  What kind of impression does that make?  It doesn't make you look strong, it makes you look vindictive, petty- some might say downright evil.

Declare Midmarch as neutral in all this, refuse to send him even a copper.  If he keeps bucking, look into how much bite he really has, and call him on it instead of just rolling onto your back.

Midmarch and her people are loyal to you, my lord.  If we have to go independent, well... what do we have to lose if Noleski pulls our ranks?  We couldn't be a member of the Brevic Order if we didn't live in Brevoy, anyways..."

“Except that we aren’t a country trying to stay out of another country’s civil war.” Cass explained. “We are a chartered territory of Brevoy. And by refusing a direct order of Noleski, the King of Brevoy, we can be considered committing an act of treason against said king. Yes, should Surtova win, there would be direct repercussions for Midmarch. All the more reason we should send troops to insure that Surtova does not win.”
This message was last edited by the player at 22:34, Mon 06 July 2020.

In reply to Cass Mordane (msg # 22):

Kendrick was at odds during the entire discussion. There was no easy answer, but there was a hard choice to be made. "Lord Henry. It is difficult to make a decision but since you have call us to offer our opinion on this matter"

"Ultimately it is your decision, but from where I see things. The best choice for you and for Midmarch is to announce your independence." He paused to let that idea settle before he continued. "Once you announce the independence of Midmarch, that will force the hand of the Regent and that of the Aldori swordlords. Based on how they receive the news, it may give you guidance on your next move."

"Noleski Surtova is a bully and a fear monger," added Alisa.  "Always has been, always will be.  His philosophies and attitudes are opposed to the virtues and liberties that most of us gathered here hold so dear.  And as long as Brevoy remains beholden to him, we are effectively sleeping with the enemy.  I don't personally believe it's a question of if independence should be declared, but only when and in what manner.  Men of his ilk, who love nothing save power, make equivalently dangerous rulers and enemies.  Which raises the dilemma of whether we are better served by throwing in with Lady Jamandi -- a rather vague sort of ally, in her unspecific talk of 'Grand Coalitions,' and whose forces are fighting largely out of heated pride -- or whether we're better served by not moving too far too fast in any offensive bid - as Sir Kendrick and others have suggested - playing for time, and instead securing and bolstering our defenses."  She frowned, shook her head.

"I wish diplomacy or strict neutrality could be our answer - with all my heart, I do not want a war.  But, neither of those are good means to deal with a despot.  And that is what presently sits the throne, and what we bend the knee to."   
This message had punctuation tweaked by the player at 01:20, Tue 07 July 2020.

Adoven suggests "then perhaps we ought to apply a lever. If we can somehow convince the Regent that we serve his interests best by securing his Southern border, we can effectively gain the neutrality we seek without angering Brevoy."

“If that is the route that a Henry decides to take,” Cass speculated. “Then he could send a letter stating that Henry recently sent a team of spies to the River Kingdoms. While there, they uncovered a plot to have a team of mercenaries invade Midmarch/The Stolen Land in the midst of the battle in Rostland. That way, win or lose, the Aldori would come out ahead and have a stronger launching point for their next attack against the Surtova. We believe that it would be in his best interest to leave the a Midmarch forces in place to protect his southern borders.”

Cass took another guzzle of wine and then stroked at his beard. “A similar letter could be sent to the Aldori stating that a plot has been uncovered here in Midmarch. Surtova’s nephew Stanislav was not only sent to spy on Midmarch, but to put in place certain agents. These agents all being fire mages with orders to burn Tusk city to the ground if Midmarch takes arms against Surtova. Time is needed to ferret out these agents before Midmarch can send forces to join the Grand Coalition.”
This message was last edited by the player at 02:50, Tue 07 July 2020.

Henry listens as people speak, nodding at Alisa comments about the King-Regent, but frown slightly as he listens to both Adoven and Cass  speak.  "Bart the map please." and when the map is laid out on the table, speaks more broadly.

"By that time, we will have already failed to protect Brevoy's southern border. If the Aldori win, they will control all  the land to the north of us.  Southern Rostland is lightly populated at best, although there has been expansion since we closed down the bandits who were operating along those borders.  While my intelligence isn't perfect, I believe many of those settlers will be Aldori supporters, rather than royalists.  We know the Aldori have been strengthening and reclaiming land in east Rostland, it would make sense to do the same in south Rostland.

As for strengthening that border, I am upgrading to a small castle in Newgate, and a keep in Outpost.  It makes a small defensive line and allows me to scout that area very effectively.  Most of my troops are gathered in  that area at the moment."

---

Political map of Brevoy - http://rp.baileymail.net/lib/e...brevoy-political.gif

Cass listens to Henry and studies the map he has presented. “So this brings us back to the assessment that diplomacy is futile and stalling is not effective. We will be required to declare directly for one side or the other.”

"Hmmmm..." Henry muses, "I think I will instruct Svetlana to upgrade the barracks at Oston to a Keep.  That will create a much more strongly fortified line across our northern border ...."

"One more thing for the consideration of this Council, if you will allow me, my Lord." Safiya says to Henry before continuing.

"We are working here on the assumption that House Surtova stands alone against the Aldori coalition. But just because Noleski has not married yet, does not mean he must stay bachelor forever. If he is under enough pressure, he could offer a marriage alliance to one of the great houses, an offer that any of them would consider very seriously."

"If the forces are already equally matched just between Surtova and Aldori, what will happen should another house join Surtova? I would not be so quick as to write Noleski off just yet, regardless if we join the Aldori or not. And I fear this war will not be a quick victory in the field Aldori likely assume it will, but a long and gruelling affair. It takes more than swordsmanship to win a war."

"Henry, you pointed out that the King may well remove you as Governor of Midmarch if we do not send troops," Andalon stated.

"What would that actually mean, apart from a question of legal authority? I presume he would not just leave that position vacant, but would appoint someone else with the same orders you were given. Likely someone with enough strength behind him to enforce those orders, too. Do you have any idea who that might be?" he asked.

Henry acknowledges Safiya's point, before addressing Andalon's.  "He would appoint someone else, but I don't know who.  Presumably someone that he thinks he can rely on.  His other appointments include appointing his uncle to run Port Ice in his absence, and appointing Hannis Drelev to run Fort Drelev.  He made Drelev a baron as well.  They all have a reputation for ruling their territories for their own benefit, rather than for the general good.  I suspect that Tusk would be brought under their personal control, rather than left as a free city.  In that respect, I think Restov has been fortunate that it is so far away from areas the Surtova control."

"Whatever side we support," Ethankos rumbles, "there will be a parade of souls to face their final judgment before the Lady of Graves."

"And if it is but a coin toss of choice between the Surtova and Aldori, then the matter of whether their troops be friend or foe, which set of colours might fight by our side and which vitals our blades will seek is likewise on a knife's edge."

"Whatever is decided, my fellow clergy will be ministering to the fallen.  All the fallen."

The priest considers ...

"If war must come, we should not seek to glean advantage.  Though the Grey Lady herself does not judge if a death be just, I, her simple priest, would rather fight for a cause that is right."

"And if neither Surtova nor Aldori be worthy, then perhaps we should not lend either our blades.  Perhaps we should stand aside and see to our defences so we are prepared when the victor turns vengeful eyes towards us as they surely will.  It may not be the most advantageous choice, but it may well be the right one."

He smiles at Cass. "And perhaps there are other allies who would be worthy and who would stand by us and us by them - there may yet be a need for words."

"I agree with Lord Mordane, if we are to choose a side let it be Rostland they are not the petty Tyrant the regent is and yes I say regent as he has not the right to claim the title of King, at least not yet or he already would have.  Brevoy was the Kingdom of the Rogarvarian's and with their disappearance it has fragmented, first Rostland has broken away and who knows which way the great houses will jump.

Noleski has spent the last fifteen years trying to take the throne and still the great houses are resistant to him and now Rostland, with Mivonese support is breaking away.  I am not sure any of the great houses would back such a weak ruler when there is a chance should he fall one of them may gain the throne of Issia.

Finally let me say that should a replacement be sent to replace Lord Henry then I suggest we send any candidate packing with his tail betwixt his legs and might I suggest that at that point the chapter resigns and a new chapter arise in it's place with our loyalty to Lord Henry.  We have all worked too hard to build Midmarch to what it is today to see some interloper arrive merely to take the cream of the top of all our efforts."

Andalon looked at Domitius for a long moment before asking, "Why is Mivon supporting Rostland, Dom? What do they stand to gain? Is it just a chance to attack a mutual enemy without any great risk to themselves, or have they been promised some other reward for their aid?"

Domitius paused and scratched at his chin"I suspect you will find revenge is enough reason for us Aldori, the Mivonese their mothers taught them that Rostland was their home and that one day they would return to retake the lands the Rogavarians stole from them.  They have been in exile for a long time waiting for the chance to return.

Andalon from the time I was small enough to sit on my mothers lap I remember her telling stories about the good old days when Rostland was free of the Rogarvarians, I was still a boy when whatever it was made them all disappear.

My grandfather remembers those times, he told my father about them when he was but a boy and that is one of the reasons he came to Restov and met my mother.  My father would tell me stories of the great Aldori swordsmen who met their end at the Valley of Fire how Choral's dragons burnt and pillages Rostland, how the Mivonese fled to keep the dream of freedom alive.

Brevoy wasn't really our country, it was one where you Issians stood on our necks, our mothers kept the dream alive and we trained for the day we would take our chance to rise up and throw off the shackles and be free again.

Those are reason enough for Mivon to assist Rostland, after all they are family."

Adoven adds "Another concern my Lord. How will the Aldori reach the conflict area. Will they march across our lands? Will they cross our waterways with warships? And if we side with the Regent, what do you think they will do to us in passing?"

Safiya rubs her temple as if trying to stave off a sudden headache. "I can confirm ser Domitius words, my lord bishop. I know I've heard stories enough of the Valley of Fire from my own family to last me a lifetime. And now, finally, after two hundred years of nursing this grudge Aldori see weakness, and are eager to jump at the opportunity for payback. Details such as Issians not really playing a part in this battle are generally thought of as irrelevant."

She hesitates before continuing. "Mind you, I am not saying Mivoni could not have been offered something extra. Mercenaries generally fight better when they are paid after all, and Mivoni are mercenaries. I doubt it's Midmarch though, I do not believe Restov Aldori would do that. Now, whatever they can pillage, raid or conquer from Issian held lands, that I could see. That's how this game was played before Choral showed up."

"Warriors from as far away as Garund still make pilgrimages to Mivon, to apprentice and learn the Aldori art.  So I've heard.  That tells you just how strong the Aldori presence remains there.  And, some of those swordlords almost certainly hold positions of strong influence.  No one need wonder at their support.  As Domitius points out, they've been waiting generations for this."    She also added-

"The king has stepped on a good many toes during his reign. And while it is possible one house or another might wed itself to Surtova, some of those sore feet are likewise bound to be disinclined to dance to his tune. Perhaps even more so if it involves wedding a beloved daughter to a sadist. But, I do not argue at all the potential for a protracted, ugly war.  And the sanity of avoiding it."   

"...maybe we can have it both ways, if he wants to play it that way.

I mean, yes, he wouldn't want to lose us, but still... what's worse to have on your southern border- a neutral country, or an enemy country?

Send his majesty a letter declaring our independence, and our willingness to stay neutral to the war- we don't give aid to either side, we let them fight it out.  If he decides he's going to get all huffy and whiny with us- or anybody else allied with his decides to start trouble, then suddenly we're a lot more friendly with the Aldori and we've got a lot of countryside they can ride through to come up and hassle his southern border from.  He gets a neutral border that he doesn't have to worry about, we don't have to worry about attacks from the north unless Surtova is a complete and utter jackass, and we get our own country out of the deal.  You can call yourself whatever you want to, I suppose- plus, if the Aldori win this thing, we haven't completely burned our bridges with both of them.

The survivors are going to need supplies and food and everything else after this is all done, and who has the closest farms and markets and trade routes to both sides?

It'll cost us any shot we might have at being Brevoy nobility, but in the end, well... we were going to have to have this discussion sometime.  I've lived my life without it for years, going back to being sort-of-plain-old-me wouldn't be too bad."

She finishes off her wine, and then looks for a second glass.

"Noleski may not be a particularly just ruler, or wise either, and gods know he's not a popular ruler. But he is not some slobbering monster either. House Lebeda has been trying to arrange a marriage between him and Elanna Lebeda for some time now. Lebeda. Aldori are very eager to fight Issians over Rostland independence. Would they be as keen to fight other Rostlanders over it?"

Safiya dismisses this matter with a wave of her hand. "In any case, whatever we choose we also need to be ready for the deluge of refugees as the population to the north is introduced to all the wonders of war again. I dare say there will be plenty of Rostlanders, Issians, and just plain Brevoyans among them, as well as the ever popular I-am-whatever-will-not-get-me-killed-m'lord nationality."

Andalon sat deep in thought as the debate flowed around him. Eventually he stood to speak.

"Let me see if I can summarise the situation based on what has been said here today.

"It seems to be agreed that there is no hope for negotiation of a peaceful agreement between the King-Regent and the Aldori.

"Civil war seems inevitable and our support to either side may well be enough to tip the balance in their favour.

"If we go and support the King-Regent and he wins, our current situation is not likely to change greatly. Some of us may be granted noble titles or other symbolic recognition but our trade with the Aldori lands to the east, including Restov, and with Mivon and Jovvox in the south will suffer.

"If we support the King-Regent but he loses, then we have enemies to the east as well as the south, much less reliable support from the north leaving us more open to attack from the south in particular, and our trade to the east and south will also suffer.

"If we go and support the Aldori in Rostland and they win, they say they are only interested in reclaiming Rostland so we end up with Brevoy cut in two, with us allied to the Aldori in Rostland, some degree of friendship with Mivon in the south, but with the remainder of Brevoy to the north hostile to us. Trade routes to the east and south will flourish but the pressure from the River Kingdoms for us to embrace their River Freedoms would probably also increase. There will be changes in our lives.

"If we support the Aldori but they are still defeated, the King-Regent will send someone much more heavy-handed to replace Lord Henry here in Midmarch, which would not be pleasant for any of us, even if we don't end up in prison, or worse. Our troops would have suffered badly on the battlefield so we would not be in a position to prevent the King-Regent's man from taking control of Midmarch.

"If we remain neutral and the King-Regent defeats the Aldori, the outcome would not be much different than if we had supported the Aldori. The King-Regent will send someone much more heavy-handed to replace Lord Henry here in Midmarch. I suspect we wouldn't face imprisonment but you can bet that we would be taxed to breaking point. If we fought back to prevent the King-Regent's man from taking control of Midmarch we might be successful at first but we could not hold out forever against the full strength that the King-Regent would eventually send against us.

"If we remain neutral and the Aldori win, I expect the King-Regent would still send someone much more heavy-handed to replace Lord Henry here in Midmarch. If we remain neutral it probably doesn't make much difference whether the Aldori or the King-Regent is victorious; we lose either way, eventually."

He paused and looked down at his hands, holding them in front of himself and moving them up and down like a set of scales weighing each option.

"None of those outcomes are without drawbacks but, to my mind, the outcome for Midmarch would be best, or should I say least bad, if it is our support that tips the balance in the King-Regent's favour and he manages to defeat the Aldori.

"Nonetheless, as I said at the start of this meeting, I would not be where I am today if it were not for you, Henry. The final decision is yours. I trust your judgement. I am with you either way."

After delivering his considered opinion and his pledge, Andalon shrugged apologetically to those who had been arguing in favour of joining the Aldori, and sat down.

”Andalon has summed the options up well, although I am not yet convinced that sending support to the Brevoy army is our best option.  Whatever happens, we are as well-prepared as we can be.”

Henry goes on to sum up Midmarch’s defences.  ”I don’t think we can do much more defensively at the moment.  Many of you have mentioned it, and that has been useful advice, If nothing else we are as prepared as we can be for any fallout from the war.  Tusk, which marks our southern boundary, is strengthening its defences significantly.  Our eastern border is dominated by the Shrike River, which can only be crossed easily using the bridge at Ringbridge.  That is fairly well fortified, and WSM are helping to strengthen it further.  The far side of the river has Eastgate and the new watchtower at the Burial Mound – which can patrol that area and, perhaps, provide a small guerrilla force to harry any enemy in that area.  Our northern border, between us and the civil war will be our strongest, with a castle and two keeps.  To the west, we have the Narlemarch – it is difficult to march an army through and is scattered with settlement and troops that can harry – we will even have outer patrols based in Westgate and The Old Villa. I don’t think we can go much more defensively at the moment.

My family has some experience of civil war.  My mother came here from Ustalav after our family holdings were destroyed in the War without Rivals.  It makes it more difficult to face a second war within a generation.  However, both my sister and cousin have holdings in Aldori territory, and have pledged their support to their respective leaders, as you have offered your support to me.   It makes this a particularly difficult decision for me.

However, I think we have covered most things, especially with Andalon’s masterly summation of the situation.  So I would like each of you to express, in simple terms, your preferred option.

This message was last edited by the player at 18:15, Wed 08 July 2020.