Egleris
member, 187 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 08:34 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?In reply to Imladir (msg # 10):
One of the things about true randomness though is that concentration of numbers (both on the high and low end) is a thing that can happen, isn't it? So a generator that can give you a string of low (or a string of high) results is actually one that is working much better than one who'd only give you equally distributed number - the latter, in fact, is one that isn't working properly at all.
Personally, in eleven years on the site I haven't really found any prevalent patterns in the rpol roller that are worth speaking of. I've had times where the same number was rolled multiple times in a small sequences, others that were all high, or all low, or all over the place, and I don't think I've ever seen it gamed yet. So... I think it's working fine, for whatever value anecdotal evidence of one person might have.
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Imladir
member, 35 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 08:56 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Of course it can happen. Anything could theoretically happen, including rolling twenty 1s in a row. Some results are just more likely than others.
In the end (i.e. with a large enough sample) though, you have to get uniformly distributed numbers. It's just that in most cases, we tend to focus on samples that just aren't big enough.
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Bruiser419
member, 17 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 15:57 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Thanks to everyone for replying. I assumed it was just "bad luck" but just needed to ask for peace of mind if nothing else.
I'll admit, I did try the site with a different browser, and rolled similar if not worse.
It is what it is I guess, even if it's super frustrating.
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bigbadron
moderator, 15905 posts
He's big, he's bad,
but mostly he's Ron.
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 16:06 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?In reply to Bruiser419 (msg # 13):
You will find that if you change your target numbers so that you need to roll low instead of high (eg: roll d20 with a target of 4- instead of 17+)... the roller will somehow know this and will always roll high so it can continue to frustrate you.
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Zag24
supporter, 640 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 21:26 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?| Imladir: | | Except that a computer can't do random. It's NEVER purely random. All a computer can do is pseudo-random. |
Untrue in practice, as long as the computer has constant human interaction and all you're looking for are dice-sized random numbers. If you take the milliseconds digits at the time when a human has done something, these are perfectly random.
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facemaker329
member, 7226 posts
Gaming for over 30
years, and counting!
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 21:27 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Yeah...I play in a variety of games, that all use different criteria for succeeding with whatever you're attempting (sometimes even within the same game). I have long maintained trained that, regardless of the game, I suffer from 'dramatically appropriate dice', in that the dice will fail me abysmally when it would be comedic and relatively harmless to fail...but when lives are on the line, somehow the dice just come up beautifully. It's happened to me in D&D, Star Wars, a couple of home-brew games, Palladium Fantasy, Marvel Super-Heroes, Battletech, Shadowrun...both in tabletop and here on RPOL. It's a little unsettling, sometimes...
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Imladir
member, 36 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 21:36 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?No, they are effectively random. They are not, and simply cannot, be pure random. It's simply impossible: a computer will use a deterministic algorithm to generate numbers. If you know its parameters, you will always know what will come next. If it's effectively random, it's because it's initialized with a seed (typically, the time at which it is started), which isn't something you can exactly predict.
But with the same seed, you will always have the same sequence (which is quite useful when you want to debug a random process). No matter when it's asked, by whom or anything. Hence the pseudo.
But we can still consider it random, because it will stick to the desired distribution pretty closely (more or less depending on the algorithm), so it can be considered, for us, random...but once again, that's because we don't know the seed, that's all.
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Zag24
supporter, 641 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 21:49 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?For my bona fides, let me mention that I'm a software engineer with 35+ years of experience.
| Imladir: | | It's simply impossible: a computer will use a deterministic algorithm to generate numbers. |
Absolutely true
| Imladir: | | They are not, and simply cannot, be pure random. It's simply impossible: a computer will use a deterministic algorithm to generate numbers. |
Absolutely untrue. You're assuming that the numbers are generated by an algorithm. That's one way, and I agree those are not truly random. But you can also acquire (note that I don't say generate) random numbers from the randomness that humans generate as they interact with the computer.
For instance, it took me about a minute to write this note. For the sake of argument, let's say that it is between 40,000 and 120,000 milliseconds. If the computer were timing it, rounded off to the nearest millisecond, and then took that number modulo 1000, it would have a truly random number between 1 and 1000. It isn't the computer generating the random number, it is my interaction with the computer.
This message was last edited by the user at 21:52, Fri 03 July.
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Imladir
member, 37 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 22:00 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Yes, but it's pure theory (and even then, the time you take to write a post could be said to be deterministic and not random, thus the whole algorithm isn't either, though of course, the more data you add, the closer you get).
In any case, no one generates random numbers like that. You could, theoretically, re-seed a random algorithm before you roll the dice. But it has a cost (in time), so it's not done either, especially for something that's (mostly) good enough as it is.
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Zag24
supporter, 642 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 22:31 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Have you used PuTTYgen to make a private key? That's exactly how they do it. Some languages are also adding the option to generate numbers that way. In an app that my company recently made, my customers wanted to be able to say that our randomness was truly random, so that's sort of how we did it. (Admittedly, we didn't need very many random numbers, so performance was not an issue.) random.org uses atmospheric noise to generate random numbers, which is also truly random. Be very careful when you say "no one."
This message was last edited by the user at 22:35, Fri 03 July.
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Imladir
member, 38 posts
Fri 3 Jul 2020
at 22:37 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Alright, no one who needs a large amount of random numbers or anywhere where performance is (or could be) an issue.
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Kagekiri
member, 195 posts
Sat 4 Jul 2020
at 01:55 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?You know, the topic of this thread could be the future in terms of how RPOL becomes a virtual gold mine. The dice roller could yield more favorable results based on a user's browsing history. Purchasing WotC products could make natural 20's more likely. You might call it "pay-to-win," but I prefer to call it "win-win." Just think it over admin folks, and when you make it big don't forget the little guy with the big ideas. =P
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facemaker329
member, 7228 posts
Gaming for over 30
years, and counting!
Sun 5 Jul 2020
at 07:21 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Given the definite (some would even say vehement) way in which RPOL has deliberately chosen to NOT monetize features, I'd call that one highly unlikely...
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Zag24
supporter, 644 posts
Sun 5 Jul 2020
at 16:32 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Face, how's your sarcasm detector working these days?
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facemaker329
member, 7229 posts
Gaming for over 30
years, and counting!
Sun 5 Jul 2020
at 17:54 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Depends on whether it's been running so long that the batteries are dead that day...
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jase
admin, 3764 posts
Cogito, ergo procuro.
Carpe stultus!
Wed 15 Jul 2020
at 14:19 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Think we definitely stayed true with the technical discussions aspect of this forum. (c; I won't bother arguing about how good or bad the random generator in CentOS is (the Linux flavor we now use), you can door own research on that (or stick with your current beliefs, up to you!).
Instead I'll point you to what you've all actually rolled -- all of the die rolls analysed into a table for you at https://rpol.net/info.cgi?action=analysedice. We've been recording them for some time now so you can have fun checking the bias of 6.6 million rolls. Correction... the lack of bias...
The page talks about colouring but you'll see none as everything is so close to the expected.
Enjoy! (c;
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bigbadron
moderator, 15908 posts
He's big, he's bad,
but mostly he's Ron.
Wed 15 Jul 2020
at 15:53 | Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?Nice. :) Are the figures adjusted to take into account human sacrifices?
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slogworx
member, 13 posts
https://slogworx.com
Thu 17 Sep 2020
at 22:40 | Re: Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?| jase: | Think we definitely stayed true with the technical discussions aspect of this forum. (c; I won't bother arguing about how good or bad the random generator in CentOS is (the Linux flavor we now use), you can door own research on that (or stick with your current beliefs, up to you!).
Instead I'll point you to what you've all actually rolled -- all of the die rolls analysed into a table for you at https://rpol.net/info.cgi?action=analysedice. We've been recording them for some time now so you can have fun checking the bias of 6.6 million rolls. Correction... the lack of bias...
The page talks about colouring but you'll see none as everything is so close to the expected.
Enjoy! (c; |
Big fan of the site, and I appreciate that you guys track those die rolls. Lots of fun numbers to play with! We need a basis for comparison, though, which until recently has been difficult to find.
My hypothesis is that random number generation used for gaming online typically utilizes cryptography/computer science libraries, and they are TOO RANDOM--moreso than a standard hand-rolled die. This is what skews the rolls from what we expect in a table top game.
For funsies I compared 700 rpol.net die rolls to 700 hand die rolls from the cast of Critical Role during campaign 2 (stats available via https://critrolestats.com). The numbers revealed that an rpol.net d20 roll is 10% more likely to roll a 2-10 over an 11-19 compared to a human rolled d20.
As your site stats may confirm, the likelihood of rolling any given number is "a fair chance" given total rolls towards infinity. But compounded over time in a limited campaign, the distribution of rolls compared to hand rolled dice means we're 10% more likely to fail at shit. Personally, I find that to be better opportunity for storytelling, as some of our most memorable gaming experiences are when we fail. But it's food for thought regarding random number generators for RPG gaming.
If anyone wants to review my data, it's here: https://slog.link/ER
This message was last edited by the user at 23:21, Thu 17 Sept.
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donsr
member, 2053 posts
Thu 17 Sep 2020
at 23:13 | Re: Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?::chucklesLL if it does? i wouldn't know, i clear by chache 2 or three times a week.
It the end it doesn't matter, everyone has the same dice roller.. you can always wait until have your made rolls to do PC house cleaning.
For My games i change the outcomes needed.. sometimes you need to roll high..somethings low... the mods i use in my homebrew system withh either add or subtract accordingly.
let's see the dice roller beat that!
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MalaeDezeld
member, 125 posts
Thu 17 Sep 2020
at 23:34 | Re: Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?| quote: | | My hypothesis is that random number generation used for gaming online [...] are TOO RANDOM--moreso than a standard hand-rolled dice. This is what skews the rolls from what we expect in a table top game. |
I would explain it the other way: human hand rolling dice isn't random enough. They skews the results toward what they want. Or at least those that aren't hated by their dice ;) Human not being good random generator is the reason dice tower exist.
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Skald
moderator, 911 posts
Whatever it is,
I'm against it
Fri 18 Sep 2020
at 04:39 | Re: Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?My theory is that it's much more likely is that physical dice aren't mass produced to exacting precision, and if their weighting isn't perfect that would mean that a given dice is likely to roll either high or low, hence earning them a 'lucky' or 'unlucky' reputation. And guess which one players will favour ? ;>
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jase
admin, 3779 posts
Cogito, ergo procuro.
Carpe stultus!
Fri 18 Sep 2020
at 06:51 | Re: Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?In reply to Skald (msg # 31):
Coincidentally (and I'm sure you'll be absolutely shocked to hear it) the human rolls favoured high results. 60% of the rolls made with real dice were 11 or over -- so I'd really hope that our stats would be 10% lower.
Which (by another great coincidence) puts our 11-20 rolls at 50%. Exactly as it should be!
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slogworx
member, 15 posts
https://slogworx.com
https://slog.link
Fri 18 Sep 2020
at 13:22 | Re: Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?In reply to jase (msg # 32):
What I found most interesting is that the frequency of 1s and 20s are pretty much the same.
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Gaffer
member, 1651 posts
Ocoee FL
45 yrs of RPGs
Fri 18 Sep 2020
at 13:30 | Re: Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?In reply to slogworx (msg # 33):
Well... yes.
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slogworx
member, 19 posts
https://slogworx.com
https://slog.link
Thu 22 Oct 2020
at 23:18 | Re: Is Dice Roller affected at all by browser cookies/cache?I meant to follow this up with a "thank you" to the community for this thread, but forgot to do so.
I really enjoyed this conversation and the points made. Humans absolutely tend to favor dice that roll well for them, and perhaps that is less fair for determining the story trajectory than a random number generator. It's also kind of satisfying to be able to come up with a theory for why rolling on the site is a different experience from the table. I am happy to have contributed to the subject, and have since embraced my horrible rpol.net rolls knowing the statistical details.
May you all fail 10% more than usual, and tell better stories for it! :)
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